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| Image: Sky News |
Asteroid 2024 YR4, a near-Earth object (NEO), was first identified on December 27, 2024, by the ATLAS telescope in Chile. Classified as an Apollo-type asteroid, its estimated diameter ranges from 40 to 90 meters. Initial observations raised concerns about a possible impact with Earth in 2032, but further analysis has significantly reduced this risk.
Impact Risks for Earth and the Moon
According to the European Space Agency (ESA), early calculations suggested a 3.1% probability of 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth. However, more recent data analysis has lowered this figure to just 0.001%, effectively ruling out any major threat. On the other hand, the Moon has a higher chance of impact, estimated at 1.7% (New York Post).
Consequences of an Impact
If 2024 YR4 were to collide with Earth, it could release energy equivalent to approximately 8 megatons of TNT, similar to the Tunguska event of 1908. Such an explosion would likely cause significant regional destruction, depending on the impact location (Reuters).
If it were to hit the Moon instead, the impact could create a noticeable crater and eject debris into space. However, experts suggest that any debris is unlikely to pose a significant threat to Earth (The Sun UK).
Monitoring and Future Observations
NASA and ESA have now downgraded the asteroid’s risk level, and it has been removed from ESA’s high-risk list. Scientists continue to monitor it, with planned studies using the James Webb Space Telescope to gain more insights into its characteristics and trajectory (ESA).
Conclusion
While initial concerns about asteroid 2024 YR4 led to speculation about a potential Earth impact, further research has confirmed that it poses no significant danger. The possibility of it striking the Moon remains under observation, but even in such a case, the consequences are expected to be minimal. This event highlights the importance of continued asteroid tracking and planetary defense strategies.